Four years ago today, I, like many other pro-life leaders, eagerly watched the Supreme Court’s website frantically refreshing the page waiting to see what the Court would decide in the most important decision of my life.
My now wife and I quickly scanned the decision as soon as it dropped and, within seconds, we were screaming and jumping for joy. The Court had finally done what many had said was impossible. Roe v. Wade was dead.
For nearly 50 years the pro-life movement fought tirelessly for this goal. As a young pro-life advocate at the time I had been told for years that Roe was “settled law” and we simply had to accept that reality. They said our time would be best spent trying to wiggle in what limited protections we could where the law would allow us. Thankfully the pessimistic defeatists were wrong and thank God they often are.
In the immediate wake of Dobbs, pro-life states rushed to implement their trigger bans as one-by-one states began to protect unborn life in a way that had not been possible since the 1970s. The pro-life movement had achieved a monumental win that literally shifted the political and cultural landscape of the country. Babies were being saved. To this day we are still feeling the ramifications of Dobbs and lives are no doubt being saved in pro-life states.
Unfortunately, our greatest victory was immediately used against us. As anyone could have predicted, Dobbs galvanized the political left and abortion supporters in a serious way. Per usual, the abortion lobby wasted no time pouring millions of dollars into lies and propaganda. They have time and again proven themselves to be a shockingly effective machine and a powerful adversary. They are evil, but they are not dumb. Planned Parenthood and their ilk had prepared for this moment for decades.
Dobbs had come down right before the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans had been favored to win big, and many pundits predicted a “red wave.” For a variety of reasons, that red wave failed to materialize and pro-life was appointed to take the blame.
The cold water to the face is that we simply got out played. While the abortion industry was a well-oiled machine prepared for the Dobbs decision, the pro-life movement was scattered and unaligned, or at least in the eyes of the public. There was not one clear messaging campaign, there was no unified next step, there was crossfire and counter signaling within our camp.
Some wanted to press on and use the momentum to push for federal legislation, others wanted to slow the roll and temper our expectations. This messaging divide was present among members of Congress, podcasters, political pundits, and pro-life leaders, but most importantly it was evident to the American people.
It is easy, and unfair, to make ex-post-facto judgements with the benefit of hindsight. We should not reflect on Dobbs and point fingers. Instead, we should look back at our greatest win and figure out what went wrong so collectively we don’t make the same mistakes again.
The tragic reality that some would prefer not to accept, is that while we have no doubt saved lives after Dobbs and passed pro-life legislation, it was not nearly the win that it should have been.
Today only 19 states protect the life of the unborn in the womb. Missouri, the first state in the nation to enforce a trigger law after Dobbs, unfortunately flipped via constitutional amendment legalizing abortion.
Even among the 19 that protect life only 13 protect life from fertilization, 4 protect life at heartbeat, and 2 protect life at 12 weeks. Even still, in all these pro-life states abortion is legal if the mother conducts her abortion via the chemical abortion pill. No state has yet passed legislation which truly protects the unborn child in the same way as a born child.
The most recent estimates from The Society of Family Planning indicate in 2025 there were nearly 1,130,000 abortions in the United States. Around 66% of all abortions were done using the chemical abortion drug. Approximately 300,000 of those were through so-called tele-health, meaning the abortion pills were distributed by mail with no meaningful medical oversight.
These abortion pills are flowing directly into pro-life states with impunity as “shield laws” continue to protect the providers.
The Guttmacher Institute’s last full year of reporting data prior to Dobbs shows in 2020 there were 930,160 abortions. Even in the post-Roe world total abortion numbers continue to rise.
We cannot put our heads in the sand and gaslight ourselves. If our goal is to end abortion, we are not winning. Dobbs was not a silver bullet; it was an open door.
The abortion industry is smart, wealthy, and determined. If we are not on our A-game, we will not beat them.
For nearly 50 years Roe gave the pro-life movement a unified enemy, a boogeyman to attack. With Roe gone, it seems unclear to many what the next move is. Much like in a game of chess, we cannot think one move at a time. We must constantly look for the strongest, forcing moves that allow us to keep control over the board. Even more important, we must know what our final goal really is. Vague slogans and catch phrases are not enough. Saying we will make abortion unthinkable is a great idea, but it is not a tangible goal. What does checkmate look like in the chess game of ending abortion? I make the case that it is full equal protection for the unborn, but that is covered in another article.
But I am not writing on the anniversary of our greatest victory to be pessimistic or upsetting. The exact opposite. Dobbs was a tremendous Earth-shaking win, and our short-term setbacks do not change that. Like I said before, Dobbs was an open door, not a silver bullet.
Dobbs was not the end of the game; it was the start of the game. Through the blood, sweat, and tears of countless pro-life leaders and activists over 50+ years we finally have the opportunity we prayed for. We can end abortion!
There are those who take pride in predicting their own defeat and boast in their near prophetic accuracy. We must not be those people.
We must keep our eyes laser focused on ending abortion and we must truly believe that it can happen.
I do not want my children to inherit my fight. I do not want to look back after another 50 years and say, “well we moved the ball a few inches!”
I want to tell my children and grandchildren that the rock which killed Goliath came from my sling.
The lesson from Dobbs is that we CAN win. We can do what the naysayers claim cannot be done. We should not take our foot off the gas or paralyze ourselves with fear at the thought of victory.
We were put on the Earth for such a time as this. We will end abortion, and with God’s grace we will end it in my lifetime. Victory belongs to he who is bold enough to take it.
In Numbers chapter 13, twelve spies were sent by Moses to observe the promised land. Of the twelve spies, ten returned with fearful reports and said the land could not be taken. Only Joshua and Caleb trusted God for victory.
Of the 12 spies, only 2 would go on to enter the promised land: Caleb and Joshua.
As we reflect on the great opportunity afforded to us by the Dobbs decision we should celebrate and refresh our spirits. This is what we had always prayed for, now the real fight begins.
Defending Life,
Victor Nieves
President, Life Issues Institute
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